Friday, May 11, 2007

Little Big...Stat Line



There are some fantasy baseball owners who were very happy concerning the events of the last two days. It had nothing to do with Todd Helton raising his average (he got the day off yesterday), Joe Mauer coming back from the DL, or even Jose Reyes hitting for the cycle...wait, that could have happened. These owners are happy, and it doesn't have anything to do with offense.

Wednesday night, the Cubs' Jason Marquis threw a complete game shutout at the cost of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yesterday, the White Sox Jose Contreras completed the same feat against the Minnesota Twins, as did Kelvim Escobar of the "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim" against the Cleveland Indians. Shutouts are incredibly rare in baseball. Especially in this era of the game where such an emphasis is based on power and one swing, regardless if it was a good one or not, can put at least one run on the board. Shutouts have become a hot, yet rare commodity.

Aside from the offensive power of the game, there is another reason why shutouts, and complete games for that matter, are becoming more rare: the ever present pitch count. Teams have such an investment made in their pitchers that they conserve their arms for the long runs. Unless a team's bullpen has been heavily used that week, or a no-hitter is in tact, managers will pull a pitcher after 7 innings of 4-hit shutout baseball if the pitch count is over 100, regardless of how they feel just because the GM is breathing down the manager's neck. Marquis, Escobar, and Contreras threw 109, 103, and 98 pitches respectively in their shutout victories which aren't very high numbers for 9 innings. They also struck out 5,9,and 3 batters in their outings.

A few days ago I made reference to Pedro Martinez and his pitching transformation. In order for the three outings in the past two days to be possible, Marquis, Escobar, and Contreras had to have taken a page out of Pedro's book. To stay in the game for so long, you have to manage a great game. With help from your catcher of course, you have to rely heavily on the ground ball to get outs early in the count to preserve your pitch count. Escobar, who has always been known as a strikeout artist added 9 to his season total yesterday, higher than the other 2. However, I will say that in years past, if Escobar pitched 9 innings, he would probably have struck out 12-15 batters and also racking up a 120+ pitch count. Power pitchers challenging batters creates more foul balls, more deep counts, and in turn, a higher pitch count. As these pitchers learn to keep their pitch counts down, they not only are going to improve their stats and value, but their teams as well...taking valuable innings off of their bullpen going late into the game. This assuming that they can execute their plans of course. Jeff Weaver doesn't seem to know anything about execution these days. In fact, other than his playoff run last year, that he pulled out of his rear-end, I don't think Jeff Weaver has ever executed, anything. Neither have the Bulls. Against the Pistons, they couldn't execute a murderer in Texas. Who blows 19 point leads? Thanks Scott, for not playing Tyrus in the third quarter...we greatly appreciate it. See you next year. And don't bring Nick Anderson with you. Or Donald Royal.

Anyway, back to baseball...There are those that believe that baseball is a game of 20 year cycles meaning that the way the game is played changes every 20 years. For almost 20 years, we have been in a power surge. Are we seeing the makings of a change? Players and coaches are going to catch on to what Pedro Martinez has made famous...just as three guys did in the past two days. I'm not going to make any predictions...but it's possible that we are fazing out of the home run era as more and more players are getting pitched around and getting the McGwire-shift syndrome while pitchers learn to better use their pitches.

However you look at it, pitchers are adjusting...even if it was just for a few days. There have been a number of shutouts already this year...the first coming on the arm of Seattle's Felix Hernandez one-hitting the Red Sox in DICE-K's Fenway debut, and you can't get a shutout without great pitch/location selection and solid game management. Hitters have evolved over the past 10-15 years...it's time for the pitchers to do the same. And if Bob Gibson were playing today, tomorrow, or 40 years from now...he'd still hit you just cause he feels like it.

Stay Away from Ben Gordon

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